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里帰り その後・・。
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里帰り その後・・。
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> Brazil Coffee Crop, World's Biggest, to Plummet as Prices Soar
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower, may harvest 24 percent less next year because of an alternating production cycle and weather damage to trees that has sent prices to a four-year high, a survey showed.

Brazil's 2005-2006 crop may be less than 29 million bags, each weighing 60 kilos (132 pounds), down from an expected 38.3 million this year, said four grower cooperatives surveyed by Bloomberg. Brazil's agriculture ministry will make its first forecast of the crop in Brasilia at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

Coffee output was expected to fall in Brazil because trees produce less every other year. The decline will be even greater than expected because heavy rains followed drought in Minas Gerais, the largest coffee-growing state, said Lucio Dias, who runs the Cooxupe coffee growers cooperative in Guaxupe, Brazil.

``Production is going to drop significantly,'' Dias, whose cooperative has 9,600 growers in Minas Gerais state, said in a telephone interview from Guaxupe. ``Not only do we have the biannual effect, but bad weather and higher costs means trees weren't treated so well.''

The prospect of a smaller Brazilian crop helped boost the price of coffee traded on the New York Board of Trade by more than 52 percent this year. Coffee futures on Dec. 2 reached $1.025 a pound, the highest since July 2000. Procter & Gamble Co. yesterday raised the price of some types of Folgers coffees 14 percent, the first increase in two years.

``With production going down in Brazil, the trend will be for prices to rise,'' Rodrigo Costa, a coffee trader at Fimat USA Inc., said in an interview from his New York office.

Other Forecasts

The growers' forecast is lower than analysts such as Oxford, England-based LMC International Ltd., which expects a 36 million- bag crop next year in Brazil.

The Hong Kong-based commodities trading company Noble Group Ltd. expects coffee to rise to $1.20 a pound by June because of lower Brazilian production. Coffee for March delivery rose 1.05 cent, or 1.1 percent, to 99 cents a pound at 9:18 a.m. on the New York Board of Trade.

Brazilian coffee trees also will produce less because farmers reduced the use of fertilizer after prices surged 20 percent his year, said Marcelo Moura, manager of Cooparaiso, a coffee cooperative of 3,600 growers in Sao Sebastiao do Paraiso, Brazil, in Minas Gerais state.

``Farmers aren't fertilizing trees as much as they need to because prices are too high,'' Moura said in an interview from Sao Sebastiao do Paraiso. ``Our profit is shrinking so the quality of the harvest will be lower.''

The rate of new coffee trees coming into production in Brazil has slowed from a peak in 2002-03, when national production reached a record 48.5 million bags, government figures show. Some farmers have abandoned coffee trees to focus on producing soybeans, which can be more profitable, Moura said.
[PR]
by horoniga-com | 2005-01-07 13:42 | マスターのつぶやき